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Conflict

Russia–Ukraine war

Discuss Full coverage · 32 →
C CNBC· 8m

Russia returns to G20 table in Bangkok on U.S. invitation that angers Europe

Russia’s return to the G20 table has tested how far Washington’s outreach to Moscow will strain ties with European allies.

  • FFrance 24 · 8m Live: Trump calls renewed Ukraine attacks on Russian oil refineries 'a disgrace'
  • PPBS · 6h Drone strike on ship in Romanian waters raises fear that war in Ukraine is spreading
  • PPBS · 6h Ukraine resumes strikes on energy targets, saying Russia never stopped its attacks
  • PPBS · 6h Ukraine less reliant on U.S. as Trump-Zelenskyy rift deepens, former ambassador says

Analysis

Tensions between the U.S. and Ukraine have escalated following President Trump's unilateral announcement of an 'energy ceasefire' and a deal to purchase Russian diesel, which Kyiv warns will fund Moscow's war efforts. As Ukraine resumes strikes on Russian energy targets and faces deadly Russian attacks, European allies are grappling with concerns over regional security and potential sabotage. Observers are watching for the outcome of diplomatic efforts to bridge the rift between Washington and Kyiv as Ukraine seeks continued support from European partners.

12 stories 12 outlets ↑ Getting worse

11 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the UN General Assembly or G20 adopt a resolution or joint declaration formally condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine by 2027-01-15?
No formal condemnation 61%
Formal condemnation adopted 39%

Poll

Should Western countries keep sending weapons to Ukraine?

Poll

Should frozen Russian assets be used to rebuild Ukraine?

Climate

Climate change and extreme weather

Discuss Full coverage · 21 →
F France 24· 6h

France and Germany agree to ease EU car emissions rules in new deal

France and Germany have backed looser EU emissions rules for carmakers and agreed to include Britain in a “made in Europe” scheme, in a provisional deal reached Thursday that could reshape the bloc’s automotive and climate policies.

  • FFrance 24 · 4d El Nino breaks Pacific temperature record as weather pattern intensifies
  • TThe Guardian · 6h California faces more extreme weather as hot, windy days raise wildfire risk
  • FFrance 24 · 2d 🔴 Live: Greta Thunberg joins French student protests ahead of nationwide rallies
  • TThe Guardian · 3d Hurricane Simon and Tropical Storm Rachel kill five people on Mexico’s Pacific coast

Analysis

Intensifying El Niño conditions are driving record-breaking Pacific temperatures and severe weather events, including catastrophic flooding in Thailand and Nepal, while global health experts warn of increased risks from heat-related deaths and pregnancy complications. These climate-driven disruptions are impacting daily life through infrastructure damage, power outages, and public health threats, prompting international calls for urgent adaptation support. Observers are now monitoring the peak of the El Niño pattern expected in December and upcoming legal developments regarding fossil fuel industry accountability.

12 stories 14 outlets ↑ Getting worse

7 stories say getting worse, 1 story says mixed

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the total number of confirmed fatalities from Hurricane Polo and Hurricane Nolo combined exceed 150 by December 31, 2026?
150 or fewer fatalities 58%
151 or more fatalities 42%

Poll

Who should pay most for climate damage?

Poll

Would you accept higher energy bills to cut emissions faster?

Democracy

Elections and democracy

Discuss Full coverage · 97 →
P PBS· 6h

Trump administration sues California to block counting of alleged noncitizen mail ballots

The Trump administration sued California election officials Thursday, asking a judge to bar the state from counting mail-in ballots for next month's midterm elections from people the federal government has identified as "likely" noncitizens until their status can be confirmed.

+1 more sources
  • PPBS · 6h An accounting of Trump's promised payouts and questions they raise
  • PPBS · 6h Frustrated with Trump, voters overwhelmingly want change, AP-NORC poll finds
  • PPolitico · 8m Inside the democratic socialists’ plan to shake up Congress
  • TThe Guardian · 6h Texas sued after glitch delays almost 600,000 voter registrations

Analysis

Recent election-related developments range from runoff voting in Brazil and leadership shifts in Serbia to ongoing legal battles over US midterm ballot procedures and voter rolls. These events impact citizens by directly influencing political representation, the integrity of voting processes, and the stability of governance in their respective nations. Observers are now watching for the outcomes of these high-stakes elections and the broader implications of judicial rulings on upcoming democratic participation.

12 stories 13 outlets

4 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the 2026 US midterm election results be officially certified in all states by December 31, 2026?
All states certified by deadline 72%
One or more states delayed 28%

Poll

What would most improve trust in elections?

Poll

Should there be age limits for top elected offices?

Energy

Oil and gas prices and supply

Discuss Full coverage · 12 →
C CNBC· 6h

Brian Sullivan: Why the 'real' price of oil is likely $30-$40 higher than where it is now

Physical oil can cost about $38 a barrel more to deliver, as tanker rates surge.

  • BBBC News · 8m Fuel costs squeezing margins for some businesses
  • AAl Jazeera · 8m Residents douse workers with flaming gasoline during eviction in Peru
  • AABC News · 8m Prime Minister Mark Carney says US is trying to break Canada as Alberta votes on separation path
  • CCNBC · 2d More Republicans come out against Trump's diesel deal with Putin

Analysis

Global energy markets are experiencing significant volatility as shipping costs surge due to tanker shortages and nations like France and the U.S. implement emergency measures, including diesel releases and regulatory rollbacks, to combat rising fuel prices. These developments directly impact consumers through sustained high gas prices and potential shifts in fuel availability ahead of the U.S. midterm elections. Observers are now monitoring the effectiveness of these government interventions and the ongoing diplomatic talks between the U.S. and Iran regarding potential supply stabilization.

12 stories 12 outlets

4 stories say getting worse, 2 stories say getting better

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the European Union report a diesel supply shortage or implement emergency rationing by January 15, 2027?
Supply remains stable 65%
Shortage or rationing reported 35%

Poll

How should governments respond to high fuel prices?

Poll

Have fuel prices changed how you travel in the past month?

Economy

India's economy and policy

Discuss Full coverage · 31 →
C CNBC· 8m

India's rupee forecast to weaken toward 100-per-dollar level even as RBI pushes back

The RBI's latest moves have helped the rupee recover from 96.79 rupees per dollar to the 95-level over recent days.

  • TThe Hindu · 3d Government not only ‘stealing’ votes but also savings: Congress on rise in inflation
  • NNew York Times · 8m El Niño Threatens Global Sugar Supply
  • TThe Hindu · 8m From idle plots to tapping trails: rubber boom lifts hopes for stakeholders in Keralam
  • TThe Hindu · 8m Building bridges for India’s wildlife

Analysis

India's economy faces conflicting pressures as retail inflation hits a 23-month high, driven by rising food costs, while the government simultaneously pushes for long-term growth through a $25 billion deep tech investment and new green energy policies. These developments impact household budgets and employment prospects, creating a complex landscape for consumers and investors alike. Moving forward, observers are monitoring the government's response to agricultural distress and the effectiveness of new trade and infrastructure initiatives in stabilizing the economy.

12 stories 14 outlets

5 stories say getting worse, 3 stories say getting better

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the Indian government officially launch the $25 billion Deep Tech investment fund by March 31, 2027?
Fund officially launched 61%
Fund not yet launched 39%

Poll

What should India's government focus on first?

Poll

Is GST simpler for businesses than the old tax system?

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