Conflict

Russia–Ukraine war

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The full picture

The Russia-Ukraine war continues with deadly attacks and new diplomatic talks, while a controversial U.S. deal to buy Russian fuel has sparked international concern.

Why it matters to you
  • Attacks on cities threaten the lives and safety of Ukrainian civilians, including children. source

  • The U.S. decision to buy Russian diesel may lower fuel prices for Americans but could provide money for Russia to continue its war. source

  • Sabotage and attacks on cargo ships in European waters threaten the safety of global trade and supply chains. source

Different sides
  • President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (Ukraine)

    He argues that easing pressure on Russia only encourages them to keep attacking cities.

    source
  • The Kremlin (Russia)

    They demand a full peace deal that includes Ukraine giving up territory, rather than a temporary pause in fighting.

    source
  • Estonian Government

    They claim Russia is running a campaign of sabotage across Europe to scare countries into stopping their support for Ukraine.

    source
What happened
  1. Russian drone and missile attacks kill at least eight civilians in Ukraine. source

  2. Estonia accuses Russia of a sabotage arson attack on a defense company. source

  3. Data shows Russian gold exports are shifting to Hong Kong to avoid Western sanctions. source

  4. Russian strikes kill 15 people in Zaporizhzhia following a U.S. deal to buy Russian diesel. source

What to watch next
  • UNGA schedules emergency special session on Ukraine.
  • EU members refuse to sign G20 statement without condemnation.
  • China and India issue joint statement on 'peaceful resolution'.
What we don't know yet
  • Will the new peace talks in Miami lead to a concrete plan to end the war?
  • How will the U.S. deal to buy Russian fuel affect the unity of Western sanctions against Moscow?
  • Will the sabotage attacks in Europe lead to a direct conflict between Russia and NATO?

Written by AI from 10 news stories. Every point links to the story it came from. Updated 5d ago.

Analysis

Tensions between the U.S. and Ukraine have escalated following President Trump's unilateral announcement of an 'energy ceasefire' and a deal to purchase Russian diesel, which Kyiv warns will fund Moscow's war efforts. As Ukraine resumes strikes on Russian energy targets and faces deadly Russian attacks, European allies are grappling with concerns over regional security and potential sabotage. Observers are watching for the outcome of diplomatic efforts to bridge the rift between Washington and Kyiv as Ukraine seeks continued support from European partners.

4 stories 4 outlets ↑ Getting worse

3 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Poll

Should Western countries keep sending weapons to Ukraine?

Poll

Should frozen Russian assets be used to rebuild Ukraine?

How the odds moved

Will the UN General Assembly or G20 adopt a resolution or joint declaration formally condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine by 2027-01-15?

Formal condemnation adopted 39%No formal condemnation 61%

No moves yet. The odds change only when one of the events below is confirmed by at least two outlets or an official source.

What would move the odds

These are possible future events Zoose is watching for, not news. None has happened unless it is marked Confirmed.

  • Possible · not happened 45% chance
    G20 fails to reach consensus on final communique If it happens: ↑ No formal condemnation ↓ Formal condemnation adopted
    Will it happen by Jan 15?
  • Possible · not happened 60% chance
    China and India issue joint statement on 'peaceful resolution' If it happens: ↑ No formal condemnation ↓ Formal condemnation adopted
    Will it happen by Jan 15?
  • Possible · not happened 30% chance
    EU members refuse to sign G20 statement without condemnation If it happens: ↑ Formal condemnation adopted ↓ No formal condemnation
    Will it happen by Jan 15?
  • Possible · not happened 25% chance
    UNGA schedules emergency special session on Ukraine If it happens: ↑ Formal condemnation adopted ↓ No formal condemnation
    Will it happen by Jan 15?

Started at 39% / 61% on Sep 25. Each event can fire once.

Make your forecast
Scenarios to Jan 15, 2027

Will the UN General Assembly or G20 adopt a resolution or joint declaration formally condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine by 2027-01-15?

Formal condemnation adopted 39%
No formal condemnation 61%
Your call: 65%

Odds move when a signpost is confirmed by the news.

Discussion

Ask @zoose anything about Ukraine
  1. New forecast: Will the UN General Assembly or G20 adopt a resolution or joint declaration formally condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine by 2027-01-15? Starting odds: Formal condemnation adopted 39%, No formal condemnation 61%.

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