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Analysis

Tensions between Kyiv and Washington have escalated as President Trump waives new Russia sanctions and accuses President Zelenskyy of prolonging the war, while both nations continue to trade heavy drone and missile strikes. This diplomatic rift raises concerns about Ukraine's security as the winter approaches and European leaders meet to discuss continued support for Kyiv. Observers are watching to see if the ongoing EU summit results in new aid commitments and how the strained U.S.-Ukraine relationship impacts the battlefield.

12 stories 13 outlets ↑ Getting worse

2 stories say mixed, 1 story says getting better, 1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Poll

Should the EU prioritize increasing direct military aid to Ukraine or focus on internal budget stability?

Forecast poll

Will the EU reach a formal agreement on the proposed Ukraine support budget at the Brussels summit by October 31?

Forecast · closes Oct 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

Analysis

1 development from 1 outlet in the past week. Recent evidence leans getting worse.

1 stories 1 outlets ↑ Getting worse

1 story says getting worse

Early reports

Poll

Should local zoning rules be loosened to allow more apartments?

Poll

What would do most to make housing affordable?

Analysis

2 developments from 2 outlets in the past week.

2 stories 2 outlets
Early reports

Poll

Should the US expand semiconductor export controls on China even if it cuts into American chipmakers' China sales?

Forecast poll

Will the US Commerce Department add at least five Chinese entities to its Entity List by 2025-12-31?

Forecast · closes Dec 18
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

Stories

Gas & oil
T The Guardian · 4h

In allowing coal expansion in the Hunter, Chris Minns is pouring fuel on the climate fire. His decision will come back to hurt us all | Jack Egan

The high court found NSW is responsible for emissions from burning exported coal. What message does it send when the government can step in and bypass the law?Sign up for climate and environment editor Adam Morton’s free Clear Air newsletter hereAs someone who lost their home in the black summer bushfires, I was buoyed