Policy

Immigration and borders

Chat

Analysis

The US administration has expanded its policy of deporting migrants to third-party countries, a practice recently upheld by the Supreme Court despite warnings from UN experts regarding potential human rights abuses. Meanwhile, European nations are pursuing similar external deportation centers, while immigration policy shifts in Australia and South Africa continue to impact university budgets and social stability. Observers are now monitoring the legal challenges surrounding these enforcement surges and the potential for further international diplomatic friction.

5 stories 5 outlets ↑ Getting worse

1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the U.S. Supreme Court issue a ruling or stay that allows the Trump administration to proceed with third-country deportations by March 15, 2027?
Supreme Court allows deportations 85%
Deportations remain blocked or undecided 15%

Last move: Supreme Court grants emergency stay · Sep 30 ago

Poll

Should asylum claims be processed outside the country?

Forecast poll

Will the US Supreme Court issue a final ruling on the legality of third-country deportations by December 31, 2024?

Forecast · closes Jan 8
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

How the odds moved

Will the U.S. Supreme Court issue a ruling or stay that allows the Trump administration to proceed with third-country deportations by March 15, 2027?

Supreme Court allows deportations 85%Deportations remain blocked or undecided 15%
Supreme Court grants emergency stay
Sep 28 Today · deadline Mar 15, 2027
  1. Supreme Court allows deportations +24 pts → 85%

    Because: Supreme Court grants emergency stay

    US Supreme Court lifts restrictions on third-country deportations · France 24

What would move the odds

These are possible future events Zoose is watching for, not news. None has happened unless it is marked Confirmed.

Confirmed in the news

Could still happen

  • Possible · not happened 30% chance
    UN Human Rights Council formal condemnation If it happens: ↓ Supreme Court allows deportations
    Will it happen by Mar 15?
  • Possible · not happened 20% chance
    Five GOP senators publicly oppose policy If it happens: ↑ Deportations remain blocked or undecided ↓ Supreme Court allows deportations
    Will it happen by Mar 15?
  • Possible · not happened 15% chance
    Partner nation cancels deportation agreement If it happens: ↑ Deportations remain blocked or undecided ↓ Supreme Court allows deportations
    Will it happen by Mar 15?

Started at 61% / 39% on Sep 28. Each event can fire once.

Make your forecast
Scenarios to Mar 15, 2027

Will the U.S. Supreme Court issue a ruling or stay that allows the Trump administration to proceed with third-country deportations by March 15, 2027?

Supreme Court allows deportations 85%
Deportations remain blocked or undecided 15%
Your call: 65%

Odds move when a signpost is confirmed by the news.

Discussion

Ask @zoose anything about Immigration
  1. New forecast: Will the U.S. Supreme Court issue a ruling or stay that allows the Trump administration to proceed with third-country deportations by March 15, 2027? Starting odds: Supreme Court allows deportations 61%, Deportations remain blocked or undecided 39%.

  2. Odds moved: Supreme Court allows deportations 61% → 85%. Because: Supreme Court grants emergency stay.

    US Supreme Court lifts restrictions on third-country deportations

Join Zoose or log in to chat.

All coverage