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P PBS· 15h

U.S. jobless claims fell to 194,000 last week, lowest since July

So far this year, claims have remained at historically low levels, never topping 230,000 in a single week.

+1 more sources

Analysis

2 developments from 3 outlets in the past week. Recent evidence leans getting better.

2 stories 3 outlets ↓ Getting better

2 stories say getting better

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

What will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate be for January 2027, as first reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics?
4.2% to 4.5% 48%
4.1% or lower 30%
4.6% or higher 23%

Poll

Should the U.S. federal government expand funding for job retraining programs for workers displaced by automation?

Forecast poll

Will the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report a national unemployment rate of 4.5% or higher in a jobs report released by 2025-12-31?

Forecast · closes Jan 16
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

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T The Guardian· 9h

Sharp drops for AI stocks overwhelm markets worldwide as oil prices jump

Datacenter and chip costs fueled sharp decrease in AI sector although non-AI stocks still had a strong showingThe latest shudder for stocks in the AI industry pulled markets lower worldwide on Thursday, while oil prices hit their highest levels since May on worries about the war with Iran.The S&P 500 fell 1.2% for its

Analysis

Character.ai has filed for bankruptcy following lawsuits alleging ties to teen suicides, CNN reports, and China says it will curb exports of technology, including AI, citing national security risks. For ordinary people, these stories show AI reaching into daily life, from the safety of chatbot services to entry-level jobs for young workers in India and the destruction of physical books scanned to train AI models. Watch the U.S.-China dialogues on AI safety and governance, which PBS reports have made progress, including on setting up a mechanism to notify each other of AI incidents that could threaten national security.

12 stories 12 outlets

2 stories say mixed, 2 stories say getting worse, 1 story says getting better

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States or the European Union implement new restrictions on the export or use of Chinese-developed AI models by March 31, 2027?
New restrictions implemented 58%
No new restrictions 42%

Poll

Should the EU prioritize developing its own sovereign AI infrastructure over adopting existing US or Chinese models?

Forecast poll

Will the EU pass new legislation specifically regulating the use of copyrighted books for AI training by December 31, 2024?

Forecast · closes Jan 14
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

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C CNBC· 3h

10-year Treasury yield tumbles below 5% to lowest level in nearly a month

Treasury yields dove dramatically lower on Thursday as investors monitored a slump in stocks and surging oil prices.

Analysis

6 developments from 6 outlets in the past week, including 2 official sources. Recent evidence leans mixed.

6 stories 6 outlets 2 primary sources

1 story says mixed, 1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

By how much will the Federal Reserve's federal funds target range change between October 18, 2026 and January 31, 2027?
No net change 33%
Net cut of 25 bp 30%
Net cut of 50+ bp 27%

Poll

Should the Federal Reserve prioritize cutting the federal funds rate now to support jobs, or hold it until inflation nears 2%?

Forecast poll

Will the Federal Open Market Committee lower the federal funds target range at its next meeting by October 31, 2025?

Forecast · closes Nov 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

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P PBS· 3h

RFK Jr. adviser Calley Means resigns amid growing MAHA discontent over lack of progress

Calley Means, a top adviser to Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and a chief advocate for the Make America Healthy Again movement, resigned from his position with the Trump administration Thursday.

Analysis

Ebola cases have been confirmed in Nigeria and Kenya, with the WHO warning that the outbreak is becoming more complex as it spreads across multiple African nations. These developments raise urgent concerns about regional public health preparedness and border controls for travelers and local populations. Observers are now monitoring whether containment efforts in affected provinces and countries can successfully halt the virus's further transmission.

12 stories 12 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

By February 28, 2027, how many countries other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo will have reported at least one laboratory-confirmed Ebola case linked to the current Congo outbreak?
One or two countries 45%
Three or four countries 35%
Five or more countries 21%

Poll

Should countries share outbreak data with the WHO even when it's politically awkward?

Poll

If a new outbreak spread widely, which measures would you support?

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P PBS· 9h

DOJ monitoring plans and DHS voter checks raise concerns of election interference

With the midterm elections less than two weeks away, a new legal battle is raising questions about the federal government's role in policing who is eligible to vote. A federal judge in California has blocked a Department of Homeland Security effort to identify noncitizens on voter rolls. White House correspondent Liz L

Analysis

Global election cycles are intensifying as major political figures and billionaires inject record-breaking funding into campaigns, while legal battles over voter eligibility and election integrity escalate in the U.S. and Brazil. These developments directly impact voters by shaping the regulatory environment, influencing the balance of power in legislative bodies, and determining the fairness of upcoming electoral outcomes. Observers are now closely monitoring the final rallies and court rulings ahead of critical runoffs and midterm votes that will decide the political direction of several nations.

12 stories 14 outlets

2 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff election scheduled for late October 2026?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 44%
Flávio Bolsonaro 43%
Other or contested 13%

Poll

Should social media platforms remove false claims about voting?

Poll

What would most improve trust in elections?