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P PBS· 18h

U.S. jobless claims fell to 194,000 last week, lowest since July

So far this year, claims have remained at historically low levels, never topping 230,000 in a single week.

+1 more sources

Analysis

2 developments from 3 outlets in the past week. Recent evidence leans getting better.

2 stories 3 outlets ↓ Getting better

2 stories say getting better

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

What will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate be for January 2027, as first reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics?
4.2% to 4.5% 48%
4.1% or lower 30%
4.6% or higher 23%

Poll

Should the U.S. federal government expand funding for job retraining programs for workers displaced by automation?

Forecast poll

Will the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report a national unemployment rate of 4.5% or higher in a jobs report released by 2025-12-31?

Forecast · closes Jan 16
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

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T The Guardian· 12h

Sharp drops for AI stocks overwhelm markets worldwide as oil prices jump

Datacenter and chip costs fueled sharp decrease in AI sector although non-AI stocks still had a strong showingThe latest shudder for stocks in the AI industry pulled markets lower worldwide on Thursday, while oil prices hit their highest levels since May on worries about the war with Iran.The S&P 500 fell 1.2% for its

Analysis

Recent developments highlight a growing backlash against AI infrastructure, with voters opposing data centers and markets reacting to sector volatility, while security concerns intensify following global website outages linked to AI-exposed vulnerabilities. These events signal a shift from the initial awe surrounding AI toward tangible impacts on local resources, financial stability, and digital safety. Moving forward, observers are tracking international regulatory efforts, including US-China safety dialogues and EU attempts to balance strict oversight with technological competitiveness.

12 stories 12 outlets

2 stories say mixed, 2 stories say getting worse, 1 story says getting better

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States or the European Union implement new restrictions on the export or use of Chinese-developed AI models by March 31, 2027?
New restrictions implemented 58%
No new restrictions 42%

Poll

Should the EU prioritize developing its own sovereign AI infrastructure over adopting existing US or Chinese models?

Forecast poll

Will the EU pass new legislation specifically regulating the use of copyrighted books for AI training by December 31, 2024?

Forecast · closes Jan 14
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

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C CNBC· 6h

10-year Treasury yield tumbles below 5% to lowest level in nearly a month

Treasury yields dove dramatically lower on Thursday as investors monitored a slump in stocks and surging oil prices.

Analysis

6 developments from 6 outlets in the past week, including 2 official sources. Recent evidence leans mixed.

6 stories 6 outlets 2 primary sources

1 story says mixed, 1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

By how much will the Federal Reserve's federal funds target range change between October 18, 2026 and January 31, 2027?
No net change 33%
Net cut of 25 bp 30%
Net cut of 50+ bp 27%

Poll

Should the Federal Reserve prioritize cutting the federal funds rate now to support jobs, or hold it until inflation nears 2%?

Forecast poll

Will the Federal Open Market Committee lower the federal funds target range at its next meeting by October 31, 2025?

Forecast · closes Nov 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

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P PBS· 6h

RFK Jr. adviser Calley Means resigns amid growing MAHA discontent over lack of progress

Calley Means, a top adviser to Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and a chief advocate for the Make America Healthy Again movement, resigned from his position with the Trump administration Thursday.

Analysis

Ebola cases have been confirmed in Nigeria and Kenya, with the WHO warning that the outbreak is becoming more complex as it spreads across multiple African nations. These developments raise urgent concerns about regional public health preparedness and border controls for travelers and local populations. Observers are now monitoring whether containment efforts in affected provinces and countries can successfully halt the virus's further transmission.

12 stories 12 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

By February 28, 2027, how many countries other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo will have reported at least one laboratory-confirmed Ebola case linked to the current Congo outbreak?
One or two countries 45%
Three or four countries 35%
Five or more countries 21%

Poll

Should countries share outbreak data with the WHO even when it's politically awkward?

Poll

If a new outbreak spread widely, which measures would you support?

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P PBS· 1d

Supreme Court rebuffs Trump administration restrictions on medical care for transgender inmates

The Supreme Court on Wednesday refused to allow the Trump administration to immediately enforce new medical restrictions for transgender people in prison. The decision leaves in place a lower-court block on the policy.

Analysis

7 developments from 7 outlets in the past week. Recent evidence leans getting better.

7 stories 7 outlets

1 story says getting better, 1 story says mixed, 1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States federal government implement new restrictions on Medicare drug price negotiations or expand exemptions for drugmakers by March 31, 2027?
Status quo or expanded negotiations 61%
Expanded exemptions or restricted negotiations 39%

Poll

Should the government negotiate prices for more prescription drugs?

Poll

What is the biggest problem with healthcare where you live?